Every fantasy baseball manager knows the feeling of "draft day regret." Whether it is watching a mid-round sleeper turn into an MVP candidate or seeing a high-priced cornerstone struggle out of the gate, the landscape of the league changes the moment the first pitch is thrown. As we move deeper into the 2026 season, the market has corrected itself, leading to significant Fantasy Baseball ADP shifts that reflect the reality of the diamond rather than preseason projections.
By comparing preseason Average Draft Position (ADP) to current trends, we can identify which players have seen their value skyrocket and which are sliding down the rankings. From international arrivals like Kazuma Okamoto to young power hitters like Michael Busch, these movements represent the most critical data points for managers looking to make trades or savvy waiver wire additions.
The Breakout Risers: Busch and Okamoto Leading the Way
Perhaps no player has seen a more dramatic rise in value than Michael Busch. After flashes of potential in previous seasons, Busch has solidified himself as a middle-of-the-order threat. His ability to maintain a high walk rate while increasing his barrel percentage has made him a darling of the analytics community and a massive riser in Fantasy Baseball ADP shifts. Managers who snagged him in the late rounds are now sitting on a high-end corner infield asset that was drafted as a mere bench piece in March.
On the international front, Kazuma Okamoto has successfully transitioned his NPB power to the Major Leagues. Entering the season as a high-variance option due to the uncertainty of Japanese sluggers adjusting to MLB velocity, Okamoto has silenced skeptics. His ADP has climbed steadily as he proves that his power is legitimate, moving him from a speculative mid-round pick into the territory of established elite third basemen. His plate discipline has been the surprise factor, keeping his floor high even when the home runs aren't flying.
Volatility and Upside: The Cases of Oneil Cruz and Jordan Walker
Few players encapsulate the "boom or bust" nature of fantasy baseball quite like Oneil Cruz and Jordan Walker. Both players entered 2026 with massive expectations based on their physical tools, but their ADP paths have diverged based on early-season consistency. Cruz remains one of the most polarizing figures in the game; while his Statcast metrics are legendary, his swing-and-miss tendencies continue to cause fluctuations in his market value. When he is on a hot streak, his ADP rivals the top 20, but the cold stretches keep him in a state of constant movement.
Jordan Walker, meanwhile, continues to be a focal point for dynasty and redraft managers alike. The shifts in his ADP often reflect the adjustments he makes at the plate. After a preseason where many expected a massive Year 3 leap, his current standing is tied directly to his launch angle and ability to lift the ball. For managers, Walker represents the ultimate "buy low" or "sell high" candidate depending on which week of the season you check the rankings.
Established Excellence: Devers and Naylor
While the biggest Fantasy Baseball ADP shifts usually involve younger players, veterans like Rafael Devers and Josh Naylor provide the stability that anchors winning rosters. Devers remains a model of consistency, though even he has seen slight upward movement as other top-tier third basemen have dealt with injuries. His ability to drive in runs at an elite clip makes him a safe harbor in a volatile market.
Josh Naylor continues to be undervalued by the general public but highly coveted by winning managers. His ADP often starts lower than his end-of-season production suggests it should, leading to a perennial climb once the season begins. Naylor’s elite contact skills for a power hitter make him a unique asset in points leagues and category formats alike, ensuring his value stays on an upward trajectory as the season progresses.
Pitching Sleepers and Deep League Targets
The pitching side of the ledger has also seen notable movement, particularly with Jose Soriano and Riley O'Brien. In many preseason drafts, these names were relegated to the final rounds or the waiver wire. However, as rotations deal with the inevitable attrition of the long season, their roles have expanded. Jose Soriano has seen his stock rise as he harnesses his triple-digit heat, while Riley O'Brien has become a person of interest for those hunting for strikeouts and ratios in deeper formats.
Finally, keep an eye on Sal Stewart. As a rising prospect who has forced his way into the conversation, his ADP shift is purely speculative but grounded in high-end minor league performance. For managers in keeper leagues, Stewart represents the next wave of talent that could redefine the draft board in 2027.
- Michael Busch: Power surge has turned him into a must-start corner infielder.
- Kazuma Okamoto: The NPB star has successfully translated his game to the MLB.
- Oneil Cruz: High-variance talent that keeps the ADP market moving.
- Jose Soriano: High-velocity arm climbing the ranks of fantasy rotations.
Understanding these shifts is not just about looking back at what happened—it’s about projecting what happens next. Whether you are looking to sell high on a riser or buy low on a slumping star, the ADP data is your best tool for staying ahead of the competition in your fantasy baseball league.
Sources & Original Reporting
