The 2026 MLB season is officially on the horizon, and for fantasy managers, that means it is time for the annual tradition of high-stakes forecasting. ESPN’s senior fantasy analyst Eric Karabell has released his latest slate of fantasy baseball bold predictions, covering every team in the American League. Known for his "Don’t be surprised" style of analysis, Karabell’s 2026 outlook is defined by massive breakout stars in Baltimore, a changing of the guard in the pitching ranks, and some cautionary tales for aging veterans.
The Red Sox Ace: Garrett Crochet’s Cy Young Destiny
Perhaps the most jarring of Karabell’s fantasy baseball bold predictions involves the Boston Red Sox rotation. After a stellar 2025 campaign where he finished second in the voting, Garrett Crochet is projected to take the final step and claim the AL Cy Young Award in 2026. Karabell suggests that Crochet will not only stop Tarik Skubal’s dominant run but could also become a rare 20-win pitcher in the modern era.
The logic follows a massive 2025 season where Crochet proved his durability. After being traded from the White Sox to Boston, the 6-foot-6 left-hander was one of only three pitchers in baseball to eclipse 200 innings. Karabell predicts Crochet will lead the league in strikeouts once again, potentially topping the 255-K mark he set last year. For fantasy managers, this cements Crochet as a top-tier SP1 who has officially shed the "injury risk" label that followed him early in his career.
Baltimore’s Dynasty Begins: World Series and 30/30 Dreams
If there is one team Karabell is "all-in" on for 2026, it is the Baltimore Orioles. His boldest team-centric prediction is that the Orioles will win the 2026 World Series, fueled by a mix of high-priced veteran acquisitions and a core of young superstars reaching their prime. Key to this prediction is the arrival of Pete Alonso, who signed a massive five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore this offseason, and the stabilization of the bullpen with closer Ryan Helsley.
From a fantasy perspective, the spotlight remains on the youth:
- Jackson Holliday: Karabell predicts a true superstar breakout with a 30-home run, 30-steal season, earning him a spot as a legitimate AL All-Star.
- Samuel Basallo: The top prospect is expected to transition from a bench piece to a full-blown breakout star in the middle of the order.
- Gunnar Henderson: A return to his 2024 MVP-caliber form is expected after a slight dip in power metrics during the 2025 season.
AL Power Surges: Nick Kurtz and Cal Raleigh
The American League West features two of Karabell's favorite power-hitting targets for the 2026 season. In Oakland, rookie first baseman Nick Kurtz is the name to watch. Despite the Athletics' overall struggles, Karabell is bold enough to project a 30-home run debut season for Kurtz. His advanced plate discipline and elite exit velocity make him a high-floor rookie stash for those in deeper leagues.
In Seattle, Cal Raleigh continues to defy the typical catcher aging curve. Karabell predicts "Big Dumper" will finish as a top-25 overall fantasy hitter in 2026. Raleigh’s ability to provide elite power at a scarce position remains his greatest asset, and Karabell expects his home run totals to once again lead all MLB catchers, potentially pushing for a 40-homer season if the Mariners' lineup provides enough protection.
Veterans on the Brink: Semien and Devers
Not all of Karabell’s fantasy baseball bold predictions are positive. He offers a stern warning regarding Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien. Karabell predicts that Semien will lead the league in "most-dropped" transactions by mid-season, suggesting that the veteran’s iron-man streak and high-volume style may finally be catching up to him in the form of a significant statistical decline.
Similarly, Karabell remains skeptical of a major bounce-back for Rafael Devers. While Devers remains a cornerstone for the Red Sox, Karabell notes that his underlying metrics have plateaued. He predicts that Devers will fail to return to the top-10 overall hitter status he once held, making him a risky pick at his current late-first or early-second-round ADP.
Quick Hits Across the American League
Rounding out the 15-team list, Karabell touched on several other key storylines for the 2026 fantasy season. For the New York Yankees, the focus is on the rotation where Max Fried has joined the staff; while Karabell respects the move, he warns that Fried may underperform his ADP compared to younger flamethrowers. For the Houston Astros, health is the primary concern after a 2025 season plagued by injuries, but Karabell expects a more conservative approach to their veteran stars' workloads, potentially capping their fantasy ceilings.
Whether it is betting on the dominance of Garrett Crochet or the historical breakout of Jackson Holliday, Karabell’s predictions emphasize one thing: the 2026 season will be defined by the transition from the established veterans of the early 2020s to a new era of American League superstars.
Sources & Original Reporting
