As fantasy baseball managers head into July, three of the sport's biggest superstars are underperforming their lofty preseason expectations. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power outage is the Blue Jays' primary concern, while Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodriguez have also disappointed fantasy owners who invested early-round draft capital. But before you panic and make a trade you'll regret, there are compelling reasons to stay patient with these elite talents.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Power Outage Has Context
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is mired in a deep slump, and through 78 games this season, he has hit just 4 home runs, has a mediocre .718 OPS, and has a 97 OPS+. For a player who entered the season as a top-20 fantasy pick, these numbers are alarming. The Toronto Blue Jays posted the worst record in the league in June, compounding the frustration for Guerrero owners.
However, there's an important mitigating factor to consider. Injuries have hit the Blue Jays lineup hard over the first month-plus, which could have a lot to do with Guerrero's numbers. When a lineup lacks protection and depth, even elite hitters can see their production suffer as pitchers work around them more frequently.
Kyle Tucker's Underlying Metrics Tell a Different Story
Kyle Tucker made the move to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the offseason and has seen his fantasy production dip below expectations. But digging into the advanced metrics reveals a player who is far from broken. Almost all of his underlying metrics are in line with the past couple of seasons, except for his Barrel rate (6.9%, down roughly 4% compared to his career number).
Tucker could still be adapting to his new surroundings, however, and the healthy return of Mookie Betts should only help deepen the Dodgers lineup and lead to bigger numbers for Tucker and his teammates. The transition to a new team, new ballpark, and new lineup position can take time, even for established stars. With the Dodgers' offensive firepower, Tucker should see better pitches and more RBI opportunities as the season progresses.
Julio Rodriguez Among Elite Center Field Options
While Julio Rodriguez has also underperformed expectations, he remains one of the premier center fielders in fantasy baseball. Julio Rodriguez leads ESPN's top 5 center fielders for 2026, ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong, Daulton Varsho, Byron Buxton, and Jackson Merrill. Only Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong, Buxton and Rafaela topped 4.0 WAR in 2025, demonstrating his elite status at the position.
The Mariners' star has the tools and track record to turn things around. His combination of power, speed, and defensive excellence makes him a five-category contributor when he's right, and his underlying skills suggest positive regression is coming.
The Bigger Picture for Fantasy Managers
Nine of the top 20 picks on average in ESPN leagues find themselves on pace to score at least 100 fewer fantasy points than initially projected, and another five are at least 50 points off pace. This widespread underperformance among elite players means you're not alone in dealing with disappointing returns from your early-round investments.
The key is understanding that baseball is a game of adjustments and long seasons. Guerrero's situation could improve dramatically if the Blue Jays' lineup gets healthy. Tucker's strong underlying numbers suggest he's been unlucky and is due for positive regression. Rodriguez has the talent and pedigree to deliver elite production in the second half.
What Fantasy Managers Should Do
Rather than selling low on these superstars, fantasy managers should be patient or even look to buy low if other owners in their leagues are panicking. The talent that made these players first and second-round picks hasn't disappeared. Slumps are part of baseball, and the best fantasy managers know when to hold steady through the turbulence.
As July begins and the All-Star break approaches, these three stars have plenty of time to deliver the production that fantasy managers drafted them for. Their track records, underlying metrics, and situational contexts all suggest better days are ahead. Don't let a tough first half cause you to make a move you'll regret in September.
Sources & Original Reporting
