In the high-stakes world of the NBA, the difference between a championship legacy and a “what if” story can often be measured in inches. For Kevin Durant and the 2020-21 Brooklyn Nets, that measurement was exactly one inch—the distance between Durant’s toe and the three-point line in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. As ESPN analyst Zach Kram recently explored, the Kevin Durant 2021 foot on the line ripple effects have fundamentally reshaped the landscape of the league for nearly half a decade.
Had Durant’s sneaker been just a fraction of an inch further back, his turnaround jumper would have been a game-winning three-pointer rather than a game-tying two. The Nets would have advanced, the Milwaukee Bucks would have been eliminated, and the history of the NBA would look unrecognizable today. From blockbuster trades involving James Harden and Russell Westbrook to the championship windows of the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets, the fallout of that single play is staggering.
The Brooklyn Nets: A Dynasty That Never Was
The most immediate impact of the shot involves the Brooklyn Nets' “Big Three.” Had the Nets defeated the Bucks and gone on to win the 2021 NBA title—which many analysts believe they would have, given the remaining competition—the internal dynamics of the team likely would have stabilized. James Harden, who was dealing with a significant hamstring injury at the time, might have felt less pressure to seek a trade to the Philadelphia 76ers if he already had a ring in Brooklyn.
Furthermore, the future of Kyrie Irving with the franchise might have been navigated differently. A championship provides a level of organizational equity that can withstand the off-court distractions that eventually tore the Nets apart. Instead of the roster being dismantled for draft picks, we could have seen a Brooklyn dynasty competing for multiple titles, preventing the eventual trades that sent Durant to the Phoenix Suns and Irving to the Dallas Mavericks.
The Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee Bucks Legacy
While the Nets lost out, the Milwaukee Bucks gained everything. If Durant’s foot isn't on the line, Giannis Antetokounmpo does not win his first championship in 2021. This failure could have led to massive organizational shifts. In our current reality, the championship validated the Bucks' build-around-Giannis strategy. Without it, the pressure on the front office would have been immense.
The ripple effects extend to roster construction. Would the Bucks have been as aggressive in later seasons, such as their pursuit of Damian Lillard, if they were still chasing that elusive first title with Giannis? The championship win in 2021 cemented Giannis as one of the greatest of all time, a status that would be under much more scrutiny today had that one shot ended their season in the second round.
The Great Trade Shift: From Ben Simmons to Rudy Gobert
One of the most complex Kevin Durant 2021 foot on the line ripple effects involves the trade market. If James Harden stays in Brooklyn, the Philadelphia 76ers are forced to find a different suitor for Ben Simmons. This could have led to Simmons being moved to a team like the Sacramento Kings or Indiana Pacers for a package involving Myles Turner or Tyrese Haliburton, completely altering the trajectory of those franchises.
The Houston Rockets also see a major shift. Their haul of Brooklyn draft picks became incredibly valuable when the Nets collapsed. If the Nets remained a powerhouse, those picks would be late first-rounders, potentially changing Houston’s rebuilding timeline and their ability to draft young stars like Amen Thompson or trade for veteran talent.
Even the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Utah Jazz are affected. The massive trade for Rudy Gobert was predicated on a specific market value for stars. If the Nets' stars weren't on the move, the market for players like Gobert and Donovan Mitchell might have looked very different, potentially keeping Gobert in Utah or sending him to a different contender altogether.
Impact on the Western Conference Power Balance
The Golden State Warriors’ 2022 championship run also feels the ripple. If the Nets were the defending champions and the favorites to repeat, the path for Stephen Curry and company might have been blocked by a healthy, confident Brooklyn squad. Similarly, the Los Angeles Lakers’ decision to trade for Russell Westbrook was born out of a desperate need to find a third star to compete with the Nets' trio. If the Nets hadn't looked so dominant (yet vulnerable due to injury), the Lakers might have opted for a deeper, more balanced roster around LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Finally, we look at the rise of the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic. A world where the Nets stay together is a world where the Nuggets have a much steeper hill to climb for their 2023 title. The development of young stars like Anthony Edwards in Minnesota and Luka Doncic in Dallas has also been shaped by the vacancies in the championship race created by the Nets' sudden implosion.
Ultimately, Zach Kram’s analysis reminds us that the NBA is a league of razor-thin margins. One inch of rubber on a hardwood floor didn't just cost the Nets a game; it redirected the careers of dozens of players and the fortunes of nearly a third of the league's teams.
Sources & Original Reporting
