With the 2026 NFL Draft on the horizon, the search for the next franchise signal-caller is reaching a fever pitch. NFL front offices are scouring the tape, but for data-driven analysts, the real answers lie in the numbers. Aaron Schatz has released his highly anticipated 2026 NFL Draft quarterback projections using the QBASE 2.0 model, and the results suggest a massive gap between the top prospect and the rest of the field.
The QBASE 2.0 Methodology Explained
The QBASE 2.0 model is a sophisticated statistical tool designed to project the career ceilings and floors of NFL prospects. It combines traditional passing metrics with advanced analytics, adjusting for the quality of a quarterback's teammates and the strength of the defenses they faced in college. Crucially, the model incorporates functional mobility and rushing ability while penalizing players who are deemed "one-year wonders."
In the current 2026 cycle, Schatz’s model uses Total Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement per Attempt (TDYAR/A) to rank prospects. A value of 0 represents replacement-level performance, while any projection over 1.5 is indicative of a potential Hall of Fame trajectory. For the 2026 class, the model highlights one standout performer who separates himself from a group of high-upside but inconsistent SEC and ACC starters.
Fernando Mendoza: The Indiana Star at the Top
According to the QBASE 2.0 projections, Fernando Mendoza is the undisputed prize of the 2026 class. After transferring from Cal to the Indiana Hoosiers, Mendoza delivered one of the most decorated seasons in college football history in 2025. Leading Indiana to a 16-0 record and a national championship, Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and only six interceptions.
The Las Vegas Raiders currently hold the No. 1 overall pick and are widely expected to select the reigning Heisman winner. Mendoza’s combination of a 72% completion rate and his ability to process complex defenses quickly has him "far ahead" of other prospects in Schatz’s model. His size (6'4", 236 lbs) and moxie in the pocket make him the safest bet for a team desperate for stability at the trigger.
The SEC Contenders: Ty Simpson and Garrett Nussmeier
Behind Mendoza, the projections become more volatile. Ty Simpson of the Alabama Crimson Tide is currently viewed as the likely QB2. Simpson led the SEC in attempts (473) and completions (305) during the 2025 season, finishing with 3,567 passing yards and 28 touchdowns. While his efficiency is impressive, scouts are divided on whether his physical traits justify a top-10 selection, and the QBASE model suggests his floor may be lower than Mendoza's due to limited starting experience prior to 2025.
Meanwhile, Garrett Nussmeier of the LSU Tigers remains a high-upside projection despite an abdominal injury that shortened his 2025 campaign. In his healthy 2024 season, Nussmeier ranked fifth in the FBS with over 4,000 passing yards. The QBASE model rewards his high ball velocity and instincts, placing him firmly in the Day 2 conversation as a player who could thrive if paired with the right offensive system.
High Floors vs. High Ceilings: Drew Allar and Carson Beck
The remaining top-tier prospects present a classic scouting dilemma. Drew Allar of the Penn State Nittany Lions possesses the prototypical frame (6'5", 235 lbs) and elite arm strength that NFL GMs crave. However, his QBASE projection is tempered by concerns over his 2025 season, where he struggled with accuracy and a season-ending ankle injury. While his ceiling remains high, his consistency issues against top-tier opponents like Oregon have clouded his first-round outlook.
Finally, Carson Beck has seen his stock stabilize after a productive season with the Miami Hurricanes. Following his transfer from Georgia, Beck threw for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025. While he lacks the elite rushing upside of modern dual-threat quarterbacks, his 69.5% career completion percentage suggests a high floor as a reliable pocket distributor. Analysts like Field Yates suggest Beck could be the third quarterback off the board, likely finding a home in the early rounds for a team seeking a mature, experienced starter.
Sources & Original Reporting
