The dust has barely settled on the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, but the betting markets are already moving at breakneck speed. While the Las Vegas Raiders made history by selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick, oddsmakers have a different name at the top of their boards for the league's most prestigious freshman honor. As of Friday morning, Notre Dame standout Jeremiyah Love has emerged as the clear betting favorite to win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
The Jeremiyah Love Offensive Rookie of the Year hype train gained massive steam after the Arizona Cardinals bucked recent positional value trends to select the explosive running back with the No. 3 overall pick. Love becomes the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went second overall in 2018, signaling that Arizona views him as a foundational piece for their offense under rookie head coach Mike LaFleur.
Why Jeremiyah Love is the OROY Favorite
Jeremiyah Love enters the NFL with a statistical resume that rivals any prospect in recent memory. During his final season at Notre Dame, Love was a human highlight reel, racking up 1,372 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns while averaging a staggering 6.9 yards per carry. His combination of elite breakaway speed and pass-catching versatility makes him a perfect fit for the "wideback" role popularized in modern NFL offenses.
Oddsmakers at DraftKings and FanDuel currently list Love between +200 and +280 to take home the OROY hardware. The reasoning is simple: volume. Unlike quarterbacks who may struggle with complex defensive schemes or wide receivers who rely on chemistry with their passers, Love is expected to be a high-volume workhorse from Day 1 in Arizona. With the Cardinals currently lacking a definitive answer at quarterback, the offense is expected to flow directly through Love's ability to create explosive plays in both the run and pass game.
The Challengers: Carnell Tate and Fernando Mendoza
While Love holds the pole position, he is closely followed by two other elite prospects who landed in favorable situations. Carnell Tate, the Ohio State product selected fourth overall by the Tennessee Titans, sits with the second-shortest odds at +350. Tate joins a Titans offense in desperate need of a primary playmaker, and his polished route-running is expected to make him an immediate favorite target for Tennessee's coaching staff.
Surprisingly, the No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza finds himself slightly behind in the initial OROY odds, currently sitting at +550. Despite winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to an undefeated national championship season, quarterbacks often face a steeper learning curve in their debut seasons. However, landing with the Las Vegas Raiders provides Mendoza with a strong supporting cast that includes star running back Ashton Jeanty, which could help him vault back to the top of the conversation once the preseason begins.
Current 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- Jeremiyah Love (RB, Cardinals): +200
- Carnell Tate (WR, Titans): +350
- Jordyn Tyson (WR, Saints): +450
- Fernando Mendoza (QB, Raiders): +550
- Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks): +750
Impact on the Arizona Cardinals Offense
The selection of Love at No. 3 overall represents a significant investment for Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort. By passing on defensive help to secure Love, the Cardinals are betting that a transcendent talent in the backfield can mask other offensive deficiencies. Love’s ability to thrive in Mike LaFleur’s Shanahan-style system—which prioritizes outside zone runs and creative screen passes—could lead to the kind of statistical production that makes an OROY campaign undeniable.
"Love's ability to immediately boost this offense justifies the selection," noted several NFL analysts following the pick. "His creativity and elusiveness have earned comparisons to superstars like Bijan Robinson. If he stays healthy, he is the engine of that Arizona team."
Historical Context for Running Backs
If Love were to win the award, he would be the first running back to do so since Saquon Barkley in 2018. Over the last several years, the award has been dominated by wide receivers like Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase, or quarterbacks like C.J. Stroud. However, the 2026 class is uniquely top-heavy with elite ball carriers, with Notre Dame teammate Jadarian Price also sneaking into the first round as the final pick for the Seattle Seahawks.
As the NFL world prepares for training camps, all eyes will be on Arizona to see if Jeremiyah Love can live up to the massive expectations set by both his draft slot and the betting markets. For now, he is the man to beat in the race for the 2026 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Sources & Original Reporting
