In the high-stakes world of fantasy football, touchdowns are the ultimate currency. They can turn a mediocre Sunday into a dominant victory, but they are also notoriously volatile. As managers begin to strategize for the 2026 Fantasy Football season, identifying which players are likely to see their scoring totals dip is just as important as finding the next breakout star.
ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay has released his annual projection list, highlighting 12 players across the NFL and collegiate ranks who are prime candidates for touchdown regression. Whether due to unsustainable efficiency, changes in offensive scheme, or a shift in red-zone usage, these players may find the end zone significantly less often in the coming year. Understanding these trends is vital for drafting a winning roster and avoiding the common pitfall of overvaluing last year's box scores.
The Quarterback Factor in 2026 Fantasy Football
Perhaps the most notable name on the list of potential regression candidates is Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen. For years, Allen has been a fantasy juggernaut, largely due to his unprecedented ability to rack up rushing touchdowns. However, maintaining that pace is a monumental task as offensive dynamics shift.
Josh Allen
While Josh Allen remains an elite tier-one quarterback, Clay suggests that his rushing touchdown totals may finally see a downward trend in 2026. Relying on a quarterback to consistently lead the league in goal-line carries is a risky proposition over the long term. If the Bills prioritize his health or lean more on their traditional backfield in short-yardage situations, Allen’s fantasy ceiling could be slightly lower than in previous seasons, even if his passing yardage remains elite.
High-Volume Running Backs Facing a Scoring Dip
Running backs are often the most susceptible to touchdown fluctuations. This year, several high-profile names are expected to see a decrease in their scoring output based on historical trends and roster changes.
Jonathan Taylor
The Indianapolis Colts' engine, Jonathan Taylor, remains a workhorse, but his path to the end zone is becoming more crowded. With a mobile quarterback often taking looks near the goal line, Taylor’s opportunities for easy scores may be capped. In the context of 2026 Fantasy Football, Taylor is still a high-end asset, but managers should expect a more balanced scoring distribution in Indy.
De'Von Achane
The Miami Dolphins' speedster, De'Von Achane, has posted historic efficiency numbers recently. However, maintaining a high touchdown-per-touch ratio is nearly impossible over multiple seasons. Clay marks him as a prime candidate for a statistical dip as his efficiency likely normalizes toward the league average.
James Cook III and Travis Etienne Jr.
Both James Cook III and Travis Etienne Jr. find themselves in situations where red-zone competition is stiff. Cook faces a Buffalo offense that has multiple ways to score, while Travis Etienne Jr. may see fewer high-value touches as the Jaguars look to diversify their offensive attack. For both backs, the volume of yardage remains safe, but the double-digit touchdown upside may be harder to reach in 2026.
Pass Catchers and Tight Ends at Risk
Touchdown regression isn't limited to the ground game. Several key receiving threats and tight ends are also projected to see fewer trips to the end zone based on their 2025 usage rates.
Tee Higgins and Jauan Jennings
Tee Higgins has long been a secondary scoring threat, but his future role and health have been points of contention. Replicating peak scoring numbers will be a challenge. Similarly, Jauan Jennings of the 49ers, who has often been a reliable target in specific packages, may find it difficult to maintain his scoring efficiency as defensive coordinators adjust to his specific red-zone usage.
Dallas Goedert and Tucker Kraft
In the tight end room, Dallas Goedert and Tucker Kraft are both highlighted as players who may see a dip. Goedert remains a focal point for the Eagles, but with a crowded receiving corps including elite wideouts, his red-zone targets are often inconsistent. For Tucker Kraft, the Packers' deep rotation of young pass catchers means that touchdowns are likely to be spread across the entire roster, making it difficult to rely on him for consistent scoring production week over week.
Collegiate Names and Future Outlook
Clay’s analysis also extends to the collegiate stars who will impact the 2026 Fantasy Football landscape, whether in devy leagues or as incoming pros.
Harold Fannin Jr, RJ Harvey, and TreVeyon Henderson
Players like Harold Fannin Jr, RJ Harvey, and TreVeyon Henderson have posted eye-popping numbers at the college level. However, as they transition or face tougher defensive schemes, their scoring efficiency is expected to normalize. For those in dynasty leagues, these projections serve as a warning: while these athletes possess immense talent, expecting them to maintain astronomical touchdown rates as they face higher levels of competition is often a recipe for disappointment.
Strategic Takeaways for Your Draft
The goal of identifying touchdown regression is not to suggest that these players are no longer valuable. Instead, it is to provide a more realistic projection of their fantasy floor. When preparing for your draft, remember that yardage and target share are often more predictive of future success than touchdowns alone.
By tempering expectations for players like Josh Allen or Jonathan Taylor, you can build a more balanced roster that isn't overly dependent on unsustainable scoring streaks. Focus on players with high-volume roles and consistent usage, and view touchdowns as the "bonus" that pushes your team over the top in the 2026 season.
Sources & Original Reporting
